For this reason, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Since then, COVID-19 has spread quickly all over the world. the number of people infected by each infected person, and that, unlike what has been suggested in previous analyses, its efficacy continues to hold 20 days after the introduction of the policy.ĭiffusion of a novel coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19) began in China in December 2019, when the first cases were identified in the province of Wuhan. Results suggest that lockdown is effective in reducing the R0, i.e. Its efficacy continues to grow up to 20 days after implementation. This is especially true around 10 days after the implementation of the policy. Our results show that lockdown is effective in reducing the number of new cases in the countries that implement it, compared with those countries that do not.

We pursue our objectives by means of a quantitative panel analysis, building a longitudinal dataset with observations from countries all over the world, and estimating the impact of lockdown via feasible generalized least squares fixed effect, random effects, generalized estimating equation, and hierarchical linear models. Given this policy’s expected change in effectiveness over time, we also measure the effect of having a lockdown implemented over a given number of days (from 7 to 20 days). This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by assessing, at an international level, the effect of lockdown measures (or the lack of such measures) on the numbers of new infections. To the best of our knowledge, no existing contribution to the literature has attempted to gauge the effectiveness of lockdown measures over time in a longitudinal cross-country perspective. “Markets could once again be hit in the next couple of weeks, likely triggering another round of cuts by economists on the street,” Nomura said in a note on Tuesday, highlighting the significance of new curbs in cities such as Shenzhen.There has been much debate about the effectiveness of lockdown measures in containing COVID-19, and their appropriateness given the economic and social cost they entail. In Tianjin, a port city in China’s northeast, authorities announced that more than 13 million residents would have to undergo mass testing from 6am following the discovery of 51 COVID cases.Ĭhina has doubled down on a zero-tolerance policy aimed at stamping out COVID-19 at almost any cost, even as the rest of the world learns to live with the virus.īeijing’s doubling down on the controversial strategy comes as the ruling Communist Party gears up for a key meeting later this year at which Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to secure an unprecedented third term in power.Ĭhina’s economy barely avoided contraction during the April-June quarter as lockdowns and border controls pummelled economic activity, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding just 0.4 percent year on year. In Dalian, a major port in northeastern China known for soybeans and iron ore, some three million residents were placed under lockdown until at least Sunday. Shenzhen’s latest measures, which include closing the world’s largest wholesale electronics market, bring nearly half of the city’s 18 million residents under tightened COVID curbs. In the southern tech hub of Shenzhen, officials suspended large events and ordered the closure of entertainment venues and wholesale markets in the Longhua district, following the announcement of similar measures a day earlier in three other districts. In Hebei, the province surrounding the capital, Beijing, authorities on Tuesday ordered almost four million people to stay at home until the end of the week as officials scrambled to bring a minor flare-up of COVID-19 under control. China has placed millions of people under lockdown, dealing a new blow to the economy as it struggles to rebound from nearly three years of harsh “zero COVID” policies.

Covid lockdown